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Remo vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Remo

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

UPCOMING

Flamengo

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.8%0-28.9%0-35.3%0-4+3.6%1 1-06.1%1-110.9%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.4%2-16.0%2-25.4%2-33.3%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.2%3-12.2%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.1% 16.7% 6.00 +26.8%

Draw 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Away win 51.6% 69.4% 1.44 -25.7%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.1% 1.75 +4.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

BTTS 55.9% 54.1% 1.85 +3.4%

Home O1.5 31.0% 23.1% 4.33 +34.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 65.4% 1.53 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.9%

A 52% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 2–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Remo1.1

Flamengo1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

REMO · PPG 1.17

FLAMENGO · PPG 1.85

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

xG gap -0.69 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Remo (H) 24.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +26.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Flamengo (A) 51.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Remo face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Remo a 24% chance, the draw 24% and Flamengo 52%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Remo and 1.8 for Flamengo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Remo are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.85 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +50.2%.

Remo vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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