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Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

Atletico Paranaense

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.6%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.4%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-18.9%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.7%3-14.3%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 54.1% 1.85 -16.2%

Draw 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 30.2% 25.0% 4.00 +20.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 32.5% 26.7% 3.75 +21.9%

BTTS 55.9% 54.1% 1.85 +3.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 50.0% 2.00 -20.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 26.7% 3.75 +24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro1.4

Atletico Paranaense1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.69

ATLETICO PARANAENSE · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Atletico Paranaense (A) 30.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro face Atletico Paranaense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Atletico Paranaense 30%, so Cruzeiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cruzeiro and 1.2 for Atletico Paranaense (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.42 for Atletico Paranaense. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +40.8%.

Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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