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Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 22:30

Corinthians

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

UPCOMING

Chapecoense-sc

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-15.5%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.3%1-110.1%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.4%3-15.5%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-13.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 73.5% 1.36 -25.5%

Draw 23.6% 23.1% 4.33 +1.3%

Away win 21.6% 12.5% 8.00 +43.7%

Over 2.5 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.4% 3.40 +7.4%

BTTS 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Home O1.5 51.2% 63.7% 1.57 -19.6%

Away O1.5 18.8% 15.4% 6.50 +13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians1.8

Chapecoense-sc0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.38

CHAPECOENSE-SC · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -25.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.3%

Chapecoense-sc (A) 21.6%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +43.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians face Chapecoense-sc in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Chapecoense-sc 22%, so Corinthians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Corinthians and 0.7 for Chapecoense-sc (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.25 for Chapecoense-sc. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.5%.

Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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