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RB Bragantino vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

RB Bragantino

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

UPCOMING

Bahia

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.0%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.2%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 29.3% 28.6% 3.50 +1.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 51.3% 1.95 -22.2%

Away O1.5 31.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RB Bragantino1.5

Bahia1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RB BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.67

BAHIA · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

RB Bragantino (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -7.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Bahia (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

RB Bragantino face Bahia in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RB Bragantino a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Bahia 29%, so RB Bragantino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for RB Bragantino and 1.0 for Bahia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RB Bragantino are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.58 for Bahia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

RB Bragantino vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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