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IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

IK brage

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

UPCOMING

GIF Sundsvall

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.8%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.4%1-17.2%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-19.3%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-18.0%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-19.6%4+-24.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 59.9% 1.67 -1.0%

Draw 19.1% 25.3% 3.95 -14.7%

Away win 21.6% 21.7% 4.60 -0.4%

Over 2.5 65.3% 59.9% 1.67 +9.0%

Over 3.5 44.9% 37.7% 2.65 +19.0%

BTTS 57.7% 61.7% 1.62 -6.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 61.7% 1.62 +7.4%

Away O1.5 26.9% 32.3% 3.10 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.7%

H 59% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–0 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 1–2 3.5%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IK brage2.6

GIF Sundsvall1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

IK BRAGE · PPG 1.00

GIF SUNDSVALL · PPG 0.30

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 1.00 vs 0.30 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

IK brage (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -1.0%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -14.7%

GIF Sundsvall (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

IK brage face GIF Sundsvall in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IK brage a 59% chance, the draw 19% and GIF Sundsvall 22%, so IK brage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for IK brage and 1.0 for GIF Sundsvall (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IK brage are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.30 for GIF Sundsvall. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +40.7%.

IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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