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IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

IFK Varnamo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

UPCOMING

Varbergs BoIS FC

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.6%0-27.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.5%1-111.0%1-29.4%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.0%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.0%3-22.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 43.5% 2.30 -29.2%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 45.0% 34.7% 2.88 +29.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 34.5% 35.7% 2.80 -3.4%

BTTS 55.9% 64.5% 1.55 -13.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 50.0% 2.00 -23.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 43.5% 2.30 +10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.9%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 0–2 7.4%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Varnamo1.3

Varbergs BoIS FC1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK VARNAMO · PPG 1.00

VARBERGS BOIS FC · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IFK Varnamo (H) 30.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -29.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Varbergs BoIS FC (A) 45.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Varnamo face Varbergs BoIS FC in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Varnamo a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Varbergs BoIS FC 45%, so Varbergs BoIS FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for IFK Varnamo and 1.7 for Varbergs BoIS FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Varbergs BoIS FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +32.6%.

IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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