Today / Sweden - Superettan / Helsingborg vs Sandviken

Helsingborg vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Helsingborg

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

UPCOMING

Sandviken

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.7%0-23.1%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.9%1-18.0%1-26.6%1-33.6%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.7%3-16.1%3-25.0%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.4%4+-24.4%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 46.5% 2.15 +2.1%

Draw 22.0% 27.8% 3.60 -12.5%

Away win 30.5% 37.0% 2.70 -17.6%

Over 2.5 68.2% 63.7% 1.57 +7.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 44.4% 2.25 +1.3%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 60.4% 54.6% 1.83 +10.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helsingborg2.1

Sandviken1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.36

SANDVIKEN · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Helsingborg (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +2.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.5%

Sandviken (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helsingborg face Sandviken in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helsingborg a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Sandviken 31%, so Helsingborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Helsingborg and 1.6 for Sandviken (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helsingborg are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.90 for Sandviken. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +35.4%.

Helsingborg vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Superettan Predictions