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Oddevold vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Oddevold

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

UPCOMING

Falkenbergs FF

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.6%0-24.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.7%1-19.6%1-28.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.8%3-24.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.0%4+-22.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 47.6% 2.10 -18.9%

Draw 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 38.0% 33.3% 3.00 +14.0%

Over 2.5 64.9% 58.8% 1.70 +10.3%

Over 3.5 44.8% 38.2% 2.62 +17.4%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 40.0% 2.50 +19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 39% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oddevold1.7

Falkenbergs FF1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.30

FALKENBERGS FF · PPG 1.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oddevold (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Falkenbergs FF (A) 38.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oddevold face Falkenbergs FF in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oddevold a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Falkenbergs FF 38%, so Oddevold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Oddevold and 1.7 for Falkenbergs FF (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oddevold are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.70 for Falkenbergs FF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +49.6%.

Oddevold vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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