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Hegelmann II vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 16 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 16:00

Hegelmann II

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Žalgiris II

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.5%0-25.0%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.8%1-110.5%1-28.1%1-34.2%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.6%2-18.6%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.0%3-14.7%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.7%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 38.2% 2.62 +17.9%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Away win 31.0% 45.5% 2.20 -31.8%

Over 2.5 62.8% 62.5% 1.60 +0.5%

Over 3.5 40.1% 41.5% 2.41 -3.4%

BTTS 62.5% 67.1% 1.49 -6.9%

Home O1.5 53.9% 45.5% 2.20 +18.6%

Away O1.5 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann II1.6

Žalgiris II1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN II · PPG 0.86

ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann II (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +17.9%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Žalgiris II (A) 31.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann II face Žalgiris II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann II a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Žalgiris II 31%, so Hegelmann II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hegelmann II and 1.5 for Žalgiris II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann II are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.57 for Žalgiris II. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.6%.

Hegelmann II vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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