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Neptuna K. vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Neptuna K.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Be1 NFA

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-19.9%0-210.0%0-36.8%0-4+5.5%1 1-04.8%1-19.8%1-210.0%1-36.7%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.4%2-14.9%2-24.9%2-33.3%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.3% 37.0% 2.70 -27.1%

Draw 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

Away win 57.3% 44.4% 2.25 +28.9%

Over 2.5 62.8% 57.8% 1.73 +8.6%

Over 3.5 39.2% 35.6% 2.81 +10.2%

BTTS 55.3% 61.7% 1.62 -10.4%

Home O1.5 26.1% 42.0% 2.38 -22.7%

Away O1.5 60.2% 47.4% 2.11 +27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob55.3%

A 57% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 0–2 10.0%

#3 1–2 10.0%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neptuna K.1.0

Be1 NFA2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEPTUNA K. · PPG 1.20

BE1 NFA · PPG 2.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Neptuna K. (H) 20.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -27.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.4%

Be1 NFA (A) 57.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neptuna K. face Be1 NFA in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neptuna K. a 20% chance, the draw 23% and Be1 NFA 57%, so Be1 NFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Neptuna K. and 2.0 for Be1 NFA (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neptuna K. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.33 for Be1 NFA. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Neptuna K. vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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