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Dainava vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 1 ·Monday, June 8, 2026, 16:00

Dainava

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Garliava

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-110.0%0-26.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.7%1-112.6%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.1%2-18.0%2-25.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.6%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 48.8% 2.05 -26.0%

Draw 28.0% 30.8% 3.25 -5.4%

Away win 35.9% 33.3% 3.00 +7.7%

Over 2.5 53.2% 58.8% 1.70 -9.6%

Over 3.5 31.1% 39.1% 2.56 -20.4%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 46.9% 53.5% 1.87 -12.3%

Away O1.5 32.0% 42.0% 2.38 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dainava1.3

Garliava1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DAINAVA · PPG 2.25

GARLIAVA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=36.1%

Win probability 1X2

Dainava (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.0%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.4%

Garliava (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dainava face Garliava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Monday, June 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dainava a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Garliava 36%, so Dainava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dainava and 1.3 for Garliava (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dainava are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.40 for Garliava. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Dainava vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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