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Jonava vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 1 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 15:00

Jonava

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Minija

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-17.6%0-29.3%0-37.6%0-4+8.2%1 1-03.2%1-17.8%1-29.5%1-37.8%1-4+8.4%2 2-01.6%2-14.0%2-24.9%2-34.0%2-4+4.3%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.7%3-31.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.0% 20.0% 5.00 -15.0%

Draw 21.7% 22.2% 4.50 -1.4%

Away win 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 57.1% 1.75 +12.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 37.2% 2.69 +5.7%

BTTS 55.4% 51.8% 1.93 +6.9%

Home O1.5 36.7% 21.3% 4.70 +72.5%

Away O1.5 68.3% 65.4% 1.53 +4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 63% / xG 1.0-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.5%

#2 0–2 9.3%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 1–3 7.8%

#5 0–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonava1.0

Minija2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JONAVA · PPG 1.60

MINIJA · PPG 2.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Jonava (H) 15.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -15.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -1.4%

Minija (A) 63.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonava face Minija in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonava a 15% chance, the draw 22% and Minija 63%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jonava and 2.4 for Minija (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonava are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.40 for Minija. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +72.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Jonava vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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