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Babrungas vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 15:00

Babrungas

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Minija

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.2%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-112.1%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.6%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 30.8% 3.25 +40.7%

Draw 25.2% 27.8% 3.60 -5.6%

Away win 31.6% 52.4% 1.91 -39.6%

Over 2.5 54.5% 57.1% 1.75 -4.6%

Over 3.5 32.2% 37.2% 2.69 -13.4%

BTTS 55.3% 64.1% 1.56 -13.7%

Home O1.5 43.5% 40.3% 2.48 +7.9%

Away O1.5 35.0% 52.6% 1.90 -33.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–0✓ 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Babrungas1.5

Minija1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BABRUNGAS · PPG 3.00

MINIJA · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (3.00), Away EXCELLENT (3.00)

Win probability 1X2

Babrungas (H) 43.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +40.7%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.6%

Minija (A) 31.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -39.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Babrungas face Minija in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Babrungas a 43% chance, the draw 25% and Minija 32%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Babrungas and 1.2 for Minija (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Babrungas are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Minija. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Babrungas vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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