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Ekranas vs Neptuna K. Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 16:00

Ekranas

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Neptuna K.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-112.2%0-28.4%0-33.9%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.3%1-112.8%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.9%2-16.7%2-24.6%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.7%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 20.0% 5.00 +64.0%

Draw 27.3% 23.8% 4.20 +8.8%

Away win 39.9% 67.6% 1.48 -40.9%

Over 2.5 48.7% 59.9% 1.67 -18.7%

Over 3.5 29.6% 39.7% 2.52 -15.2%

BTTS 55.1% 56.2% 1.78 -1.9%

Home O1.5 37.6% 26.7% 3.75 +41.0%

Away O1.5 32.0% 64.1% 1.56 -50.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.1%

A 40% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–2✓ 8.8%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekranas1.0

Neptuna K.1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EKRANAS · PPG 1.20

NEPTUNA K. · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Ekranas (H) 32.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +64.0%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +8.8%

Neptuna K. (A) 39.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -40.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekranas face Neptuna K. in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekranas a 33% chance, the draw 27% and Neptuna K. 40%, so Neptuna K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ekranas and 1.4 for Neptuna K. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekranas are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.00 for Neptuna K.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +64.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Ekranas vs Neptuna K. Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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