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Dainava vs Ekranas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 12 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 16:00

Dainava

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ekranas

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.2%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.0%1-19.1%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.1%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-16.3%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 66.7% 1.50 -20.6%

Draw 21.8% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

Away win 25.3% 21.1% 4.75 +12.1%

Over 2.5 64.1% 62.5% 1.60 +2.6%

Over 3.5 40.5% 40.2% 2.49 +0.9%

BTTS 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Home O1.5 63.5% 64.9% 1.54 -2.2%

Away O1.5 31.3% 29.2% 3.42 +7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.0%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dainava2.2

Ekranas1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DAINAVA · PPG 2.00

EKRANAS · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

63%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.9%

Win probability 1X2

Dainava (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.1%

Ekranas (A) 25.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dainava face Ekranas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dainava a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Ekranas 25%, so Dainava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Dainava and 1.1 for Ekranas (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dainava are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Ekranas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Dainava vs Ekranas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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