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TransINVEST Vil vs Kauno Z. B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

TransINVEST Vil

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kauno Z. B

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.3%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-111.8%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.1%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 40.0% 2.50 +17.3%

Draw 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Away win 28.0% 43.5% 2.30 -21.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Over 3.5 31.9% 43.5% 2.30 -26.6%

BTTS 55.3% 69.4% 1.44 -20.4%

Home O1.5 47.8% 46.9% 2.13 +1.8%

Away O1.5 29.0% 54.3% 1.84 -28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.3%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TransINVEST Vil1.6

Kauno Z. B1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST VIL · PPG 1.00

KAUNO Z. B · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

TransINVEST Vil (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +17.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Kauno Z. B (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

TransINVEST Vil face Kauno Z. B in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TransINVEST Vil a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Kauno Z. B 28%, so TransINVEST Vil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for TransINVEST Vil and 1.1 for Kauno Z. B (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TransINVEST Vil are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Kauno Z. B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 0-1.

TransINVEST Vil vs Kauno Z. B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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