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Tauras vs Hegelmann B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Tauras

PPG 2.40 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Hegelmann B

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.3%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-19.2%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-16.9%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.1%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 73.5% 1.36 -22.2%

Draw 21.6% 22.2% 4.50 -1.7%

Away win 21.2% 16.7% 6.00 +16.3%

Over 2.5 60.1% 71.4% 1.40 -15.9%

Over 3.5 37.2% 52.6% 1.90 -29.3%

BTTS 55.3% 64.5% 1.55 -14.3%

Home O1.5 62.9% 73.0% 1.37 -13.8%

Away O1.5 20.3% 32.9% 3.04 -23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tauras2.1

Hegelmann B0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TAURAS · PPG 2.40

HEGELMANN B · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=57.2%

Win probability 1X2

Tauras (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -22.2%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -1.7%

Hegelmann B (A) 21.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tauras face Hegelmann B in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tauras a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Hegelmann B 21%, so Tauras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tauras and 0.8 for Hegelmann B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tauras are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Hegelmann B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 6-1.

Tauras vs Hegelmann B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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