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Neptuna K. vs TransINVEST Vil Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 1 ·Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 16:00

Neptuna K.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

TransINVEST Vil

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.9%1-19.8%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.6%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 83.3% 1.20 -30.9%

Draw 22.4% 17.2% 5.80 +17.9%

Away win 20.0% 10.5% 9.50 +54.0%

Over 2.5 60.6% 71.4% 1.40 -15.2%

Over 3.5 37.1% 52.1% 1.92 -28.8%

BTTS 55.7% 55.6% 1.80 +0.3%

Home O1.5 59.1% 82.0% 1.22 -27.9%

Away O1.5 26.6% 20.8% 4.80 +16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.7%

H 58% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neptuna K.2.0

TransINVEST Vil0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEPTUNA K. · PPG 1.50

TRANSINVEST VIL · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Neptuna K. (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -30.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +17.9%

TransINVEST Vil (A) 20.0%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +54.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neptuna K. face TransINVEST Vil in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neptuna K. a 58% chance, the draw 22% and TransINVEST Vil 20%, so Neptuna K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Neptuna K. and 0.9 for TransINVEST Vil (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neptuna K. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for TransINVEST Vil. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Neptuna K. vs TransINVEST Vil Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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