Neptuna K. vs TransINVEST Vil Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Lithuania - 1 Lyga Regular Season - 1 Wednesday, June 10, 2026 16:00

Neptuna K. PPG 1.50

VS PENDING

TransINVEST Vil PPG 1.20

Away· +54.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Neptuna K. face TransINVEST Vil in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neptuna K. a 58% chance, the draw 22% and TransINVEST Vil 20%, so Neptuna K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Neptuna K. and 0.9 for TransINVEST Vil (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neptuna K. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for TransINVEST Vil. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.0%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 57.6%

Odds: 1.20 EV: -30.9%

Draw 22.4%

Odds: 5.80 EV: +17.9%

Away 20.0%

Odds: 9.50 EV: +54.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.6% Odds: 1.40 -15.2%

Over 3.5 37.1% Odds: 1.92 -28.8%

BTTS 55.7% Odds: 1.80 +0.3%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 2-0

3rd 2-1

4th 1-0

5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Neptuna K.

2.01

TransINVEST Vil

0.90

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -15.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-15.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5/Under 45%

BTTS/No 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -57.8%

Bet Hit 25% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)