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Atmosfera vs Zalgiris B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

Atmosfera

PPG 0.83 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Zalgiris B

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.5%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.4%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.5%3-16.2%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -7.1%

Away win 23.6% 24.4% 4.10 -1.9%

Over 2.5 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Over 3.5 39.5% 43.5% 2.30 -9.2%

BTTS 61.0% 62.5% 1.60 -2.4%

Home O1.5 56.2% 66.7% 1.50 -15.7%

Away O1.5 31.3% 31.1% 3.22 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.0%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atmosfera1.9

Zalgiris B1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATMOSFERA · PPG 0.83

ZALGIRIS B · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Atmosfera (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.1%

Zalgiris B (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atmosfera face Zalgiris B in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atmosfera a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Zalgiris B 24%, so Atmosfera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Atmosfera and 1.1 for Zalgiris B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atmosfera are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.80 for Zalgiris B. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Atmosfera vs Zalgiris B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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