UCV Moquegua vs Juan Pablo II Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Peru - Primera División Tuesday, April 14, 2026 18:00

UCV Moquegua PPG 1.50

3-0 MISS

Juan Pablo II PPG 1.50

Over3.5· +176.8% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV Moquegua face Juan Pablo II in Peru - Primera División on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV Moquegua a 54% chance, the draw 18% and Juan Pablo II 28%, so UCV Moquegua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for UCV Moquegua and 2.1 for Juan Pablo II (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 83% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV Moquegua are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Juan Pablo II. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +176.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.0%

Odds: 2.28 EV: +23.1%

Draw 17.5%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -43.1%

Away 28.5%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -11.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 87.7% Odds: 2.10 +84.2%

Over 3.5 73.8% Odds: 3.75 +176.8%

BTTS 83.3% Odds: 1.77 +47.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-2 ✘

2nd 3-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 2-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

UCV Moquegua

2.88

Juan Pablo II

2.14

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +84.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+176.8%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 64%

BTTS/No 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 54% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)