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UCV Moquegua vs Juan Pablo II Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:00

UCV Moquegua

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Juan Pablo II

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 87.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+84.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.4%0-21.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-01.9%1-14.1%1-24.3%1-33.1%1-4+2.7%2 2-02.7%2-15.9%2-26.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.6%3-15.6%3-26.0%3-34.3%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-18.2%4+-28.8%4+-36.3%4+-4+5.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 43.9% 2.28 +23.1%

Draw 17.5% 30.8% 3.25 -43.1%

Away win 28.5% 32.3% 3.10 -11.7%

Over 2.5 87.7% 47.6% 2.10 +84.2%

Over 3.5 73.8% 26.7% 3.75 +176.8%

BTTS 83.3% 56.5% 1.77 +47.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob83.3%

H 54% / xG 2.9-2.1 / O2.5 88% / BTTS 83%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 3–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 3–1 5.6%

#5 2–3 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV Moquegua2.9

Juan Pablo II2.1

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.7% · O3.5 PROB 73.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 1.50

JUAN PABLO II · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

UCV Moquegua (H) 54.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +23.1%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -43.1%

Juan Pablo II (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV Moquegua face Juan Pablo II in Peru - Primera División on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV Moquegua a 54% chance, the draw 18% and Juan Pablo II 28%, so UCV Moquegua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for UCV Moquegua and 2.1 for Juan Pablo II (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 83% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV Moquegua are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Juan Pablo II. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +176.8%. This match finished 3-0.

UCV Moquegua vs Juan Pablo II Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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