Today / Peru - Primera División / S. Cristal vs ADT

S. Cristal vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:00

S. Cristal

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

ADT

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.0%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.9%1-111.2%1-27.8%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.9%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.4%3-14.7%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 59.5% 1.68 -28.1%

Draw 24.8% 26.7% 3.75 -4.2%

Away win 32.5% 20.6% 4.85 +57.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 54.1% 1.85 +9.3%

Over 3.5 35.3% 32.3% 3.10 +9.4%

BTTS 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1✓ 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Cristal1.6

ADT1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

S. CRISTAL · PPG 1.57

ADT · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

S. Cristal (H) 42.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -28.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.2%

ADT (A) 32.5%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +57.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Cristal face ADT in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Cristal a 43% chance, the draw 25% and ADT 33%, so S. Cristal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for S. Cristal and 1.4 for ADT (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Cristal are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for ADT. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.6%. This match finished 2-1.

S. Cristal vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions