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FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 18:15

FC Cajamarca

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Alianza Lima

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

Away 55% chance

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-115.5%0-212.6%0-36.9%0-4+4.0%1 1-06.9%1-111.2%1-29.1%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-02.5%2-14.1%2-23.3%2-31.8%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.0%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 22.2% 4.50 -3.6%

Draw 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.8%

Away win 54.5% 55.2% 1.81 -1.4%

Over 2.5 47.5% 45.5% 2.20 +4.5%

Over 3.5 27.8% 23.8% 4.20 +10.1%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 16.5% 25.0% 4.00 -20.4%

Away O1.5 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob47.2%

A 55% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.5%

#2 1–1✓ 11.2%

#3 0–2 12.6%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cajamarca0.7

Alianza Lima1.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.57

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

FC Cajamarca (H) 20.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -3.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.8%

Alianza Lima (A) 54.5%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cajamarca face Alianza Lima in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cajamarca a 21% chance, the draw 25% and Alianza Lima 55%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for FC Cajamarca and 1.6 for Alianza Lima (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cajamarca are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.13 for Alianza Lima. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 1-1.

FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions