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Cienciano vs S. Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 17 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 22:00

Cienciano

PPG 2.38 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

S. Cristal

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.6%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.3%1-18.3%1-24.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.6%3-17.5%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-17.5%4+-24.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 56.5% 1.77 -1.1%

Draw 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

Away win 22.1% 24.4% 4.10 -5.6%

Over 2.5 64.1% 59.9% 1.67 +7.0%

Over 3.5 40.5% 37.7% 2.65 +7.3%

BTTS 61.0% 62.5% 1.60 -2.4%

Home O1.5 67.6% 58.8% 1.70 +14.9%

Away O1.5 31.3% 35.1% 2.85 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.0%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cienciano2.3

S. Cristal1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CIENCIANO · PPG 2.38

S. CRISTAL · PPG 0.63

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=55.9%

Win probability 1X2

Cienciano (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -1.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.4%

S. Cristal (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cienciano face S. Cristal in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cienciano a 56% chance, the draw 22% and S. Cristal 22%, so Cienciano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Cienciano and 1.1 for S. Cristal (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cienciano are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.63 for S. Cristal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Cienciano vs S. Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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