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Atletico Grau vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 20:00

Atletico Grau

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

UCV Moquegua

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-112.9%0-25.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.6%2-16.7%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.3%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 61.3% 1.63 -37.4%

Draw 34.2% 27.4% 3.65 +24.8%

Away win 27.4% 18.2% 5.50 +30.4%

Over 2.5 34.0% 47.6% 2.10 -28.6%

Over 3.5 18.6% 26.3% 3.80 -17.6%

BTTS 45.5% 50.0% 2.00 -9.0%

Home O1.5 27.0% 54.1% 1.85 -30.0%

Away O1.5 18.2% 22.2% 4.50 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.5%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.7%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0✓ 16.9%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Grau1.0

UCV Moquegua0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 1.14

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Grau (H) 38.4%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -37.4%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +24.8%

UCV Moquegua (A) 27.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Grau face UCV Moquegua in Peru - Primera División on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Grau a 38% chance, the draw 34% and UCV Moquegua 27%, so Atletico Grau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Atletico Grau and 0.8 for UCV Moquegua (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Grau are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.50 for UCV Moquegua. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Atletico Grau vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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