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Sport Huancayo vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 16 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:15

Sport Huancayo

PPG 1.86 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cienciano

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-18.1%0-27.3%0-34.4%0-4+3.0%1 1-05.9%1-110.6%1-29.5%1-35.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.8%2-16.9%2-26.2%2-33.7%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.6%3-13.0%3-22.7%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 49.5% 2.02 -25.0%

Draw 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.7%

Away win 45.7% 29.4% 3.40 +55.4%

Over 2.5 60.9% 58.8% 1.70 +3.5%

Over 3.5 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

BTTS 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Huancayo1.3

Cienciano1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 1.86

CIENCIANO · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Sport Huancayo (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -25.0%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.7%

Cienciano (A) 45.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +55.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Huancayo face Cienciano in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Huancayo a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Cienciano 46%, so Cienciano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sport Huancayo and 1.8 for Cienciano (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Huancayo are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.43 for Cienciano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Sport Huancayo vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions