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Comerciantes U. vs D. Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 16 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 20:30

Comerciantes U.

PPG 1.88 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

D. Garcilaso

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-112.1%0-24.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.1%1-25.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.0%2-17.1%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.6%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 44.4% 2.25 -2.6%

Draw 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

Away win 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 43.5% 2.30 -19.5%

Over 3.5 12.0% 23.1% 4.33 -28.8%

BTTS 48.6% 52.4% 1.91 -7.2%

Home O1.5 29.4% 40.8% 2.45 -16.8%

Away O1.5 18.6% 30.3% 3.30 -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.5%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes U.1.1

D. Garcilaso0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES U. · PPG 1.88

D. GARCILASO · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=43.3%

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes U. (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -2.6%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.6%

D. Garcilaso (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes U. face D. Garcilaso in Peru - Primera División on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes U. a 43% chance, the draw 33% and D. Garcilaso 24%, so Comerciantes U. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Comerciantes U. and 0.8 for D. Garcilaso (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes U. are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.71 for D. Garcilaso. This match finished 0-0.

Comerciantes U. vs D. Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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