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FBC Melgar vs Alianza A. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 17 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 16:00

FBC Melgar

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Alianza A.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-19.6%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-112.8%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.6%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 64.5% 1.55 -26.5%

Draw 27.6% 26.3% 3.80 +2.9%

Away win 25.0% 16.1% 6.20 +33.0%

Over 2.5 46.6% 50.0% 2.00 -6.8%

Over 3.5 27.7% 28.6% 3.50 -1.8%

BTTS 51.5% 51.3% 1.95 +0.4%

Home O1.5 38.9% 57.1% 1.75 -31.9%

Away O1.5 23.1% 22.2% 4.50 +2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.5%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBC Melgar1.3

Alianza A.0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FBC MELGAR · PPG 2.00

ALIANZA A. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=47.4%

Win probability 1X2

FBC Melgar (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -26.5%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +2.9%

Alianza A. (A) 25.0%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar face Alianza A. in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Alianza A. 25%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FBC Melgar and 0.9 for Alianza A. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Alianza A.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.0%. This match finished 3-1.

FBC Melgar vs Alianza A. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions