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ADT vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 16:00

ADT

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cusco

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-17.5%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-111.9%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-14.9%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 47.2% 2.12 +6.0%

Draw 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Away win 23.6% 31.7% 3.15 -15.4%

Over 2.5 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Over 3.5 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 46.8% 50.0% 2.00 -6.4%

Away O1.5 22.3% 38.5% 2.60 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADT1.6

Cusco0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ADT · PPG 1.75

CUSCO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=50.0%

Win probability 1X2

ADT (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +6.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

Cusco (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADT face Cusco in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADT a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Cusco 24%, so ADT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for ADT and 0.9 for Cusco (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADT are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Cusco. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 1-2.

ADT vs Cusco Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions