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D. Garcilaso vs Juan Pablo II Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 20:00

D. Garcilaso

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Juan Pablo II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 64% chance

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.5%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.5%1-110.5%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.2%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 69.0% 1.45 -19.2%

Draw 22.9% 23.0% 4.35 -0.2%

Away win 21.3% 15.2% 6.60 +24.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 32.2% 37.7% 2.65 -14.7%

BTTS 51.8% 57.1% 1.75 -9.3%

Home O1.5 56.3% 66.7% 1.50 -15.6%

Away O1.5 23.2% 25.3% 3.95 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.8%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Garcilaso1.9

Juan Pablo II0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

D. GARCILASO · PPG 2.13

JUAN PABLO II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

64%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=55.7%

Win probability 1X2

D. Garcilaso (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -19.2%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -0.2%

Juan Pablo II (A) 21.3%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Garcilaso face Juan Pablo II in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Garcilaso a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Juan Pablo II 21%, so D. Garcilaso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for D. Garcilaso and 0.9 for Juan Pablo II (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Garcilaso are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.00 for Juan Pablo II. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.3%. This match finished 4-1.

D. Garcilaso vs Juan Pablo II Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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