Peru - Primera DivisiónApertura - 17Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega· CuscoSaturday, May 30, 202620:00
D. GarcilasoPPG 2.13
4-1MISS
Juan Pablo IIPPG 1.00
Away· +24.3%⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home55.7%
Odds: 1.45EV: -19.2%
Draw22.9%
Odds: 4.35EV: -0.2%
Away21.3%
Odds: 6.60EV: +24.3%
Model lean: HomeNot tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.553.5%Odds: 1.65-11.7%
Over 3.532.2%Odds: 2.65-14.7%
BTTS51.8%Odds: 1.75-9.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st1-1✘
2nd2-0✘
3rd1-0✘
4th2-1✘
5th0-0✘
Expected Goals (xG)
D. Garcilaso
1.89
Juan Pablo II
0.91
Model Suggestion
Home-19.2%NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -19.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. Highest raw EV: Away (+24.3%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=55.7%