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Sport Boys vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 17 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 22:30

Sport Boys

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Comerciantes U.

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-112.8%0-25.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.4%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.1%2-17.0%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 60.2% 1.66 -35.9%

Draw 34.4% 27.8% 3.60 +23.8%

Away win 26.9% 19.0% 5.25 +24.7%

Over 2.5 34.0% 47.6% 2.10 -28.6%

Over 3.5 18.6% 26.3% 3.80 -17.6%

BTTS 45.5% 51.3% 1.95 -11.3%

Home O1.5 28.2% 54.1% 1.85 -28.7%

Away O1.5 21.5% 23.1% 4.33 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.5%

H 39% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0✓ 15.4%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Boys1.0

Comerciantes U.0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT BOYS · PPG 1.63

COMERCIANTES U. · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=38.6%

Win probability 1X2

Sport Boys (H) 38.6%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -35.9%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +23.8%

Comerciantes U. (A) 26.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Boys face Comerciantes U. in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Boys a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Comerciantes U. 27%, so Sport Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sport Boys and 0.9 for Comerciantes U. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Boys are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.71 for Comerciantes U.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Sport Boys vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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