Today / Egypt - Premier League / K. Ismailia vs Ismaily

K. Ismailia vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:00

K. Ismailia

PPG 0.31 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ismaily

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 38.8% — a clear edge.

+64.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.7%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.6%1-19.7%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-15.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 38.8% 2.58 +64.6%

Draw 20.4% 35.1% 2.85 -41.9%

Away win 15.8% 35.2% 2.84 -55.1%

Over 2.5 56.8% 40.8% 2.45 +39.2%

Over 3.5 34.4% 21.1% 4.75 +63.4%

BTTS 52.1% 51.3% 1.95 +1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1✓ 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

K. Ismailia2.1

Ismaily0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

K. ISMAILIA · PPG 0.31

ISMAILY · PPG 0.42

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.31), Away POOR (0.42)

Win probability 1X2

K. Ismailia (H) 63.8%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +64.6%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -41.9%

Ismaily (A) 15.8%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -55.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

K. Ismailia face Ismaily in Egypt - Premier League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives K. Ismailia a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Ismaily 16%, so K. Ismailia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for K. Ismailia and 0.9 for Ismaily (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, K. Ismailia are averaging 0.31 points per game versus 0.42 for Ismaily. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +64.6%. This match finished 1-1.

K. Ismailia vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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