Today / Egypt - Premier League / Ismaily vs Pharco

Ismaily vs Pharco Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 13 ·Thursday, May 28, 2026, 17:00

Ismaily

PPG 0.69 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Pharco

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.8%0-115.7%0-24.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.6%1-110.5%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-13.5%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.5%3-10.8%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% 36.2% 2.76 -7.8%

Draw 41.1% 36.8% 2.72 +11.8%

Away win 25.5% 36.2% 2.76 -17.8%

Over 2.5 25.8% 36.4% 2.75 -17.4%

Over 3.5 5.8% 18.2% 5.50 -40.9%

BTTS 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Home O1.5 14.5% 30.3% 3.30 -31.3%

Away O1.5 9.3% 30.3% 3.30 -41.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

D 41% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.8%

#2 1–0 20.6%

#3 0–1 15.7%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ismaily0.7

Pharco0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ISMAILY · PPG 0.69

PHARCO · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.69), Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Ismaily (H) 33.4%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -7.8%

Draw 41.1%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +11.8%

Pharco (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ismaily face Pharco in Egypt - Premier League on Thursday, May 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ismaily a 33% chance, the draw 41% and Pharco 26%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ismaily and 0.5 for Pharco (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ismaily are averaging 0.69 points per game versus 0.56 for Pharco. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Ismaily vs Pharco Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions