Today / Egypt - Premier League / Al Masry vs Al Ahly

Al Masry vs Al Ahly Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Championship Group - 7 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 17:00

Al Masry

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Ahly

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-110.5%0-26.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.2%1-112.8%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.2%2-17.9%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.6%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 21.5% 4.65 +66.9%

Draw 27.3% 28.6% 3.50 -2.7%

Away win 36.8% 58.8% 1.70 -37.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 24.1% 28.2% 3.55 -8.7%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Masry1.2

Al Ahly1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL MASRY · PPG 1.83

AL AHLY · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Al Masry (H) 35.9%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +66.9%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.7%

Al Ahly (A) 36.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Masry face Al Ahly in Egypt - Premier League on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Masry a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Al Ahly 37%, so Al Ahly are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Masry and 1.3 for Al Ahly (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Masry are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.62 for Al Ahly. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +66.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Al Masry vs Al Ahly Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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