Today / Egypt - Premier League / El Gouna vs El Geish

El Gouna vs El Geish Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 12 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 14:00

El Gouna logo
El Gouna
PPG 1.07 · HOME
2 – 1
FULL TIME
El Geish logo
El Geish
PPG 0.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-031.9%0-114.4%0-23.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.0%1-110.0%1-22.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.6%2-13.4%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.8%3-10.8%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 35.4% 36.5% 2.74 -3.0%
Draw 40.7% 37.9% 2.64 +7.4%
Away win 23.9% 34.5% 2.90 -18.4%
Over 2.5 23.8% 31.3% 3.20 -14.3%
Over 3.5 2.9% 14.3% 7.00 -47.8%
BTTS 29.3% 42.6% 2.35 -18.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%
O2.5 59%
BTTS 57%
Score Hit 46%
ROI -23.4%
Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-1
xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob29.3%

H 35% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 31.9%
#2 1–0 22.0%
#3 0–1 14.4%
#4 1–1 10.0%
#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Gouna0.7
El Geish0.5

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 2.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GOUNA · PPG 1.07

EL GEISH · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

El Gouna (H) 35.4%
ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -3.0%
Draw 40.7%
ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV +7.4%
El Geish (A) 23.9%
ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Gouna face El Geish in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Gouna a 35% chance, the draw 41% and El Geish 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for El Gouna and 0.5 for El Geish (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Gouna are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.81 for El Geish. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 2-1.

PredictVantage

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