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El Geish vs Wadi Degla Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 13 ·Thursday, May 28, 2026, 17:00

El Geish

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Wadi Degla

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.6%0-118.0%0-27.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.1%1-112.6%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.3%2-14.4%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.0%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 42.4% 2.36 -20.1%

Draw 34.3% 37.0% 2.70 -7.4%

Away win 37.5% 29.4% 3.40 +27.5%

Over 2.5 35.0% 37.0% 2.70 -5.5%

Over 3.5 9.0% 19.0% 5.25 -31.6%

BTTS 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Home O1.5 15.5% 35.7% 2.80 -34.0%

Away O1.5 20.4% 26.7% 3.75 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

D 34% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.6%

#2 0–1 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 1–0 15.1%

#5 0–2✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Geish0.7

Wadi Degla0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GEISH · PPG 1.60

WADI DEGLA · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

El Geish (H) 28.2%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -20.1%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -7.4%

Wadi Degla (A) 37.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Geish face Wadi Degla in Egypt - Premier League on Thursday, May 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Geish a 28% chance, the draw 34% and Wadi Degla 38%, so Wadi Degla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for El Geish and 0.8 for Wadi Degla (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Geish are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.53 for Wadi Degla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 0-2.

El Geish vs Wadi Degla Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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