Today / Egypt - Premier League / Al Ittihad vs Ismaily

Al Ittihad vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 12 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 17:00

Al Ittihad

PPG 1.43 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Ismaily

PPG 0.61 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.6%0-113.3%0-23.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.9%1-111.0%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.0%2-14.5%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.5%3-11.2%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 58.8% 1.70 -34.7%

Draw 38.8% 32.3% 3.10 +20.3%

Away win 22.8% 18.2% 5.50 +15.2%

Over 2.5 25.8% 36.4% 2.75 -17.4%

Over 3.5 4.6% 18.2% 5.50 -44.8%

BTTS 41.8% 40.0% 2.50 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

H 38% / xG 0.8-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.6%

#2 1–0 21.9%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ittihad0.8

Ismaily0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 1.43

ISMAILY · PPG 0.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=38.4%

Win probability 1X2

Al Ittihad (H) 38.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -34.7%

Draw 38.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +20.3%

Ismaily (A) 22.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ittihad face Ismaily in Egypt - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ittihad a 38% chance, the draw 39% and Ismaily 23%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Al Ittihad and 0.5 for Ismaily (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ittihad are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.61 for Ismaily. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Al Ittihad vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions