Today / Egypt - Premier League / Ghazl El M. vs Haras El Hodood

Ghazl El M. vs Haras El Hodood Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group · Matchday 13 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Ghazl El M.

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

Haras El Hodood

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.9%0-112.8%0-23.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.2%1-110.9%1-22.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.5%2-14.7%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.7%3-11.3%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 40.3% 2.48 +4.7%

Draw 35.0% 35.5% 2.82 -1.3%

Away win 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

Over 2.5 25.8% 35.1% 2.85 -15.9%

Over 3.5 12.5% 16.7% 6.00 -15.0%

BTTS 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

Home O1.5 21.2% 32.3% 3.10 -20.6%

Away O1.5 8.8% 27.0% 3.70 -40.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

H 42% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.9%

#2 1–0 22.2%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ghazl El M.0.9

Haras El Hodood0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GHAZL EL M. · PPG 1.31

HARAS EL HODOOD · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

42%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Ghazl El M. (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +4.7%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -1.3%

Haras El Hodood (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ghazl El M. face Haras El Hodood in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ghazl El M. a 42% chance, the draw 35% and Haras El Hodood 23%, so Ghazl El M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ghazl El M. and 0.5 for Haras El Hodood (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ghazl El M. are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.64 for Haras El Hodood. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 4-2.

Ghazl El M. vs Haras El Hodood Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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