Today / Brazil - Serie B / Nautico vs Juventude

Nautico vs Juventude Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 23:30

Nautico

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Juventude

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.6%0-115.6%0-26.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.7%1-113.2%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.6%2-15.6%2-22.3%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.9%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 44.6% 2.24 -20.5%

Draw 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Away win 33.6% 29.9% 3.35 +12.6%

Over 2.5 40.4% 44.4% 2.25 -9.1%

Over 3.5 23.4% 23.8% 4.20 -1.0%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 33.7% 41.7% 2.40 -19.1%

Away O1.5 22.5% 31.3% 3.20 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 64.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

D 31% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.6%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 15.7%

#4 0–1 15.6%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico0.8

Juventude0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO · PPG 1.29

JUVENTUDE · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Nautico (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -20.5%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.2%

Juventude (A) 33.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico face Juventude in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico a 36% chance, the draw 31% and Juventude 34%, so Nautico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Nautico and 0.8 for Juventude (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.14 for Juventude. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.6%.

Nautico vs Juventude Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions