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Juventude vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 19:00

Juventude

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Ceara

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.2%0-111.1%0-22.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.8%1-110.9%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.2%2-15.4%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.7%3-11.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 50.0% 2.00 -2.4%

Draw 31.3% 32.8% 3.05 -4.5%

Away win 19.9% 24.4% 4.10 -11.1%

Over 2.5 34.9% 42.6% 2.35 -18.0%

Over 3.5 16.8% 22.2% 4.50 -14.6%

BTTS 44.2% 50.0% 2.00 -11.6%

Home O1.5 35.5% 43.5% 2.30 -18.4%

Away O1.5 18.0% 25.6% 3.90 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.2%

H 49% / xG 1.0-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.2%

#2 1–0 22.8%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 2–0✓ 11.2%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude1.0

Ceara0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 16.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 2.00

CEARA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.8%

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.4%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -4.5%

Ceara (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face Ceara in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Ceara 20%, so Juventude are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Juventude and 0.5 for Ceara (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Ceara. This match finished 2-0.

Juventude vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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