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Londrina vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 19:00

Londrina

PPG 1.14 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

CRB

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.7%0-25.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.5%1-111.3%1-28.5%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.3%2-26.3%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.7%3-14.1%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 37.7% 2.65 +5.2%

Draw 25.2% 31.3% 3.20 -11.6%

Away win 35.2% 38.2% 2.62 -7.8%

Over 2.5 60.9% 47.6% 2.10 +27.9%

Over 3.5 37.2% 26.3% 3.80 +41.4%

BTTS 62.1% 56.5% 1.77 +9.9%

Home O1.5 43.2% 38.5% 2.60 +12.3%

Away O1.5 49.8% 39.2% 2.55 +27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 64.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

A 35% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Londrina1.5

CRB1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDRINA · PPG 1.14

CRB · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.14) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Londrina (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +5.2%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.6%

CRB (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Londrina face CRB in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Londrina a 40% chance, the draw 25% and CRB 35%, so Londrina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Londrina and 1.5 for CRB (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Londrina are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.50 for CRB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 5-0.

Londrina vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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