Today / Brazil - Serie B / Athletic Club vs Avai

Athletic Club vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 19:00

Athletic Club

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Avai

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-110.8%0-24.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.3%1-113.0%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-17.8%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 50.8% 1.97 -11.3%

Draw 28.9% 30.8% 3.25 -3.6%

Away win 26.0% 25.3% 3.95 +1.6%

Over 2.5 44.2% 44.4% 2.25 -0.5%

Over 3.5 23.4% 23.8% 4.20 -1.0%

BTTS 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Home O1.5 40.6% 45.5% 2.20 -10.7%

Away O1.5 22.9% 26.7% 3.75 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0✓ 16.3%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club1.2

Avai0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.43

AVAI · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -11.3%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.6%

Avai (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Avai 26%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Athletic Club and 0.8 for Avai (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.67 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Athletic Club vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions