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Goias vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 23:00

Goias

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Ceara

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-114.3%0-26.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.5%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.8%2-16.3%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.1%3-12.0%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 46.3% 2.16 -19.0%

Draw 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

Away win 29.9% 27.4% 3.65 +5.5%

Over 2.5 38.6% 42.6% 2.35 -9.3%

Over 3.5 19.0% 22.2% 4.50 -8.7%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 34.0% 41.7% 2.40 -18.4%

Away O1.5 23.8% 28.2% 3.55 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 64.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 0–1 14.3%

#5 2–0✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goias0.9

Ceara0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIAS · PPG 1.71

CEARA · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=37.5%

Win probability 1X2

Goias (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -19.0%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -2.2%

Ceara (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goias face Ceara in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goias a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Ceara 30%, so Goias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Goias and 0.9 for Ceara (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goias are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.86 for Ceara. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Goias vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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