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Cuiaba vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 16 ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 23:00

Cuiaba

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

America MG

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.2%0-19.8%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.0%1-110.7%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.5%2-15.8%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.5%3-12.1%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 54.3% 1.84 -10.0%

Draw 31.3% 31.3% 3.20 +0.2%

Away win 19.9% 21.3% 4.70 -3.9%

Over 2.5 34.9% 40.8% 2.45 -14.5%

Over 3.5 17.2% 21.1% 4.75 -11.0%

BTTS 44.6% 47.6% 2.10 -6.3%

Home O1.5 35.2% 45.5% 2.20 -22.6%

Away O1.5 17.7% 22.2% 4.50 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 49% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.2%

#2 1–0✓ 23.0%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cuiaba1.1

America MG0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CUIABA · PPG 1.38

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.63

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Cuiaba (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -10.0%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.2%

America MG (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cuiaba face America MG in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cuiaba a 49% chance, the draw 31% and America MG 20%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cuiaba and 0.5 for America MG (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cuiaba are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.63 for America MG. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Cuiaba vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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