Today / Brazil - Serie B / Botafogo SP vs CRB

Botafogo SP vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 15 ·Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 23:00

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

CRB

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.0%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.0%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 44.4% 2.25 +4.2%

Draw 25.5% 32.8% 3.05 -13.3%

Away win 28.2% 29.4% 3.40 -2.5%

Over 2.5 54.1% 47.6% 2.10 +13.6%

Over 3.5 33.2% 27.0% 3.70 +22.8%

BTTS 55.6% 56.5% 1.77 -1.6%

Home O1.5 43.2% 44.4% 2.25 -2.8%

Away O1.5 39.2% 33.3% 3.00 +17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 70.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo SP1.5

CRB1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.33

CRB · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo SP (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +4.2%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -13.3%

CRB (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo SP face CRB in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, June 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP a 46% chance, the draw 26% and CRB 28%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Botafogo SP and 1.2 for CRB (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.29 for CRB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.8%.

Botafogo SP vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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