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Criciuma vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 19:00

Criciuma

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Sport Recife

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.6%0-115.8%0-25.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.2%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.1%2-14.7%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.8%3-11.2%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 50.3% 1.99 -22.6%

Draw 34.3% 31.3% 3.20 +9.8%

Away win 26.8% 25.6% 3.90 +2.7%

Over 2.5 31.7% 45.5% 2.20 -30.3%

Over 3.5 12.1% 23.8% 4.20 -29.5%

BTTS 44.6% 52.6% 1.90 -15.3%

Home O1.5 33.7% 45.5% 2.20 -25.9%

Away O1.5 22.5% 28.2% 3.55 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 39% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.6%

#2 1–0✓ 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–1 15.8%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Criciuma0.8

Sport Recife0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CRICIUMA · PPG 2.14

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Criciuma (H) 38.9%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -22.6%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +9.8%

Sport Recife (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Criciuma face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Criciuma a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Sport Recife 27%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Criciuma and 0.7 for Sport Recife (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Criciuma are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.71 for Sport Recife. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Criciuma vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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