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Fortaleza vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 21:30

Fortaleza

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sport Recife

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.0%0-117.3%0-27.8%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.3%1-113.0%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.4%2-14.9%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.3%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 31.1% — —

Draw 32.3% — —

Away win 36.6% — —

Over 2.5 34.9% — —

Over 3.5 18.0% — —

BTTS 47.1% — —

Home Over 1.5 32.5% — —

Away Over 1.5 22.9% — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 83.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.1%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.0%

#2 0–1 17.3%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza0.8

Sport Recife0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA · PPG 2.17

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.17), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza (H) 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sport Recife (A) 36.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza a 31% chance, the draw 32% and Sport Recife 37%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Fortaleza and 0.9 for Sport Recife (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.00 for Sport Recife.

Fortaleza vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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