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Novorizontino vs Atletico GO Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 19:00

Novorizontino

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atletico GO

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-110.0%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.9%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.3%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 52.6% 1.90 -12.0%

Draw 27.7% 29.9% 3.35 -4.3%

Away win 26.0% 24.4% 4.10 +4.0%

Over 2.5 49.7% 50.0% 2.00 -0.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.0% 3.45 -0.4%

BTTS 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Home O1.5 42.8% 50.0% 2.00 -14.4%

Away O1.5 23.0% 29.9% 3.35 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino1.3

Atletico GO0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 2.00

ATLETICO GO · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -12.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.3%

Atletico GO (A) 26.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Atletico GO in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico GO 26%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Novorizontino and 0.9 for Atletico GO (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Atletico GO. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Novorizontino vs Atletico GO Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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