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Atletico GO vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 19:00

Atletico GO

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-16.6%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-111.0%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.1%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 69.0% 1.45 -18.2%

Draw 23.9% 25.0% 4.00 -2.6%

Away win 19.8% 13.2% 7.60 +30.3%

Over 2.5 49.8% 50.0% 2.00 -0.4%

Over 3.5 28.6% 28.6% 3.50 +0.1%

BTTS 48.1% 48.8% 2.05 -1.4%

Home O1.5 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Away O1.5 22.9% 19.0% 5.25 +12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0✓ 13.0%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico GO1.7

Ponte Preta0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GO · PPG 1.29

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico GO (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -18.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.6%

Ponte Preta (A) 19.8%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico GO face Ponte Preta in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico GO a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Ponte Preta 20%, so Atletico GO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletico GO and 0.7 for Ponte Preta (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico GO are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.50 for Ponte Preta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Atletico GO vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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