Today / USA - NWSL / Portland T. W vs R. Louisville W
Portland T. W vs R. Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL
Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 23:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 61% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%
Form & verdict
PORTLAND T. W · PPG 2.33
R. LOUISVILLE W · PPG 0.00
No PPG data
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Portland T. W face R. Louisville W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland T. W a 61% chance, the draw 20% and R. Louisville W 19%, so Portland T. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Portland T. W and 0.9 for R. Louisville W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland T. W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.00 for R. Louisville W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%.