Today / USA - NWSL Women / Angel City W vs Orlando Pride W

Angel City W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 02:00

Angel City W

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Orlando Pride W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.1%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.1%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Draw 25.0% 29.9% 3.35 -9.8%

Away win 29.7% 33.3% 3.00 -6.5%

Over 2.5 54.1% 54.1% 1.85 +0.1%

Over 3.5 33.2% 31.3% 3.20 +6.2%

BTTS 55.6% 59.9% 1.67 -7.1%

Home O1.5 43.2% 47.6% 2.10 -9.3%

Away O1.5 39.8% 38.5% 2.60 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -3.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 2–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angel City W1.5

Orlando Pride W1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGEL CITY W · PPG 1.29

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Angel City W (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -2.4%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.8%

Orlando Pride W (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angel City W face Orlando Pride W in USA - NWSL Women on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angel City W a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Orlando Pride W 30%, so Angel City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Angel City W and 1.2 for Orlando Pride W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angel City W are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.17 for Orlando Pride W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Angel City W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - NWSL Women Predictions